Sports Betting Hall of Famer Oddsmaker Avello on NFL Betting Strategy

The NFL season kicks off on Sept. 4 with a massive showdown between the Cowboys and the Eagles, providing the perfect opportunity for fans to dive into the excitement of sports betting. As these two rivals take the field, bettors will be closely watching the spreads and player props to turn every touchdown into a potential win.

• Bills and Ravens lead the Super Bowl betting favorites
• Johnny Avello shares essential betting insights

The American Gaming Association provides its NFL betting estimates for the upcoming season, predicting a staggering USD $30 billion in legal bets made throughout the season. This marks an 8.5% increase from last year’s revised estimate of $27.6 billion.

Betting Strategy

Bettors in the US are anticipated to wager a colossal USD $1.4 billion on Super Bowl LIX featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. Johnny Avello, who is regarded as a top-tier sports betting expert and the Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings, shared his valuable insights on what bettors should keep an eye on this season.

The recent roster cutdown day, which required teams to reduce their rosters to 53 players, resulted in nearly 1,200 players losing their jobs.

Season Starts On September 4

Several notable players were released, including QB Tommy DeVito (New York Giants), WR Hunter Renfrow (Carolina), QB Kyle Trask (Tampa), WR Simi Fehoko (Arizona), CB Mike Hilton (Miami), WR Xavier Restrepo (Tennessee), and veteran punter Cameron Johnston (Pittsburgh).

Despite these changes, Avello advised that nothing has occurred that could significantly alter the betting lines at this stage. For example, Daniel Jones being named the starting quarterback over Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis may shift a line, but only by half a point at most.

Adjusting Betting Lines After Week 1 and 2

“Our strategy begins with evaluating the team’s overall strength and their power ratings at the season’s start,” Avello explained. “Home field advantage is also factored in based on previous performances.”

Real adjustments will be made following the first two weeks of the season, often resulting in game lines that reflect real-time performances. NFL betting lines are generally established well ahead of the season, but substantial shifts may occur post Week 1 as teams reveal their true capabilities.

Eyes on Daniels, Burrow

“We have noticed an interesting trend in recent years where offenses tend to be a bit rusty at the start of the season, yet defenses remain strong,” Avello pointed out. “This year, I expect our power ratings to be accurate, with quick adjustments following the initial games.”

Despite the roster adjustments, Avello noted that none of these recent moves will sway betting significantly. For example, the Titans’ release of Restrepo, who was one of their leading receivers, won’t affect the betting needle much as the Titans are not considered a top-tier team.

Roster Cuts Have Little Impact on Betting Lines

Avello predicts that the strongest betting action will surge towards the Bills, Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs, which lead the NFL odds. Following closely are teams like the Broncos, Patriots, Bears, Bengals, and Chargers, which can deliver value for bettors.

“We will also continue to monitor standout players and trends from the past season,” Avello added.

Will Barkley Dominate?

Jalen Daniels is one player who surprised the league last year as the Offensive Rookie of the Year, stirring up high expectations for his team. Similarly, Joe Burrow’s outstanding comeback last season places him at the forefront of prop betting this year.

Betting enthusiasts also have their eyes on Saquon Barkley, whose name has been consistently mentioned in first touchdown scorer bets. It will be interesting to observe the 49ers as they navigate their season without key players like Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey, who previously contributed significantly to their offensive performance.

The Bills have an impressive home record, while the Browns are under scrutiny following a disappointing six-loss streak. These variations will influence how bettors approach the coming season.

Watching Wilson Closely

The Lions are anticipated to attract considerable betting action throughout the season, making every one of their games a hot topic.

Overall, the evolving landscape of NFL betting demands that enthusiasts stay informed on player performance and rule changes impacting wagering, such as adjustments in how touchbacks are handled.

As the new season approaches, Avello’s insights provide valuable frameworks within which to strategize and refine betting approaches for optimum success.

In summary, with the NFL season rapidly approaching, betting strategies hinge upon understanding team dynamics, player performances, and adjusting to changes as the games unfold. Keeping detailed observance of trends and being adaptable can significantly influence betting outcomes.

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New York Casino Licensing Process Update

Note: This article has been updated to clarify the misinformation regarding the potential delay in the award process for casino licensing in downstate NY, which was previously thought to be pushed back until January 2026.

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• New York casino licenses for the downstate region are to be issued before the year’s end.
• A false report surfaced this week that a delay was possible.
• Eight casino bids are currently vying for one of the three available licenses.

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More than a decade after the establishment of coveted downstate casino licenses for New York City’s five boroughs, Long Island, and Westchester County, the time has come to award these permits. With the end of a 10-year moratorium on issuing these licenses now behind us, it appears likely that the three permits will be awarded within the year, despite recent speculation that delays could arise.

This week, a disclosure outlined that state Senator Joseph Addabbo (D), a long-time advocate for gaming in New York, had reportedly mentioned possible delays until 2026 for the licenses in an interview with an online gaming affiliate. However, subsequent confirmation from Addabbo’s office found the initial report to be inaccurate.

The New York Gaming Facility Location Board is still on track to announce the winners for these licenses by December 1, 2025, with the full awards to be finalised by December 31, provided that each successful candidate pays a substantial fee of $500 million to the state. When quizzed on the timelines, a state representative confirmed this target by stating, “Yes, the Board is still on track for December 1.”

Before the five-member Gaming Facility Location Board can cast votes for the winning bids, each proposal is required to gain approval from a two-thirds majority from its respective Community Advisory Committee (CAC). Each of the eight CACs must complete their voting on the casino proposals by September 30.

Currently, there are eight contenders for the licenses, including:

• The Avenir (11th Ave & 41st St., Manhattan)
• Bally’s Bronx (Ferry Point, Bronx)
• Caesars Palace Times Square (1515 Broadway, Manhattan)
• The Coney (Coney Island, Brooklyn)
• Freedom Plaza (686 1st Ave., Manhattan)
• MGM Empire City (Empire City Casino, Yonkers)
• Metropolitan Park (Willets Point, Queens)
• Resorts World New York City (Aqueduct Racetrack, Queens)

This process arises from New York’s 2013 gambling legislation, which permitted the launch of four upstate casinos alongside three downstate licenses. This legislative move not only aimed to attract investments but also to invigorate the economic landscape of the state by allowing commercial slot machines and live dealer games exclusively in the upstate region for a decade as a means to bolster economic activity. Notably, the moratorium on downstate licenses concluded in February 2023.

State Licensing Timeline

The New York State Gaming Facility Location Board recently updated their website, which now outlines the eight bids received. The Board continues to uphold its intent to decide on the licenses by December 1, 2025, followed by the final licensing process by December 31, 2025.

In the midst of these developments, it is essential for interested stakeholders and the community to keep up to date with this evolving landscape of gaming licenses in New York. For anyone keen on learning more about the intricacies of gaming legislation or current projects, resources are available for deeper insights.

Summary: The New York Casino Licensing process is advancing as scheduled, with eight bids for three available licenses. Recent misinformation regarding delays has been clarified. Decisions are expected before the year concludes, marking a significant advancement in the state’s gaming landscape.

The SBA has issued a sharp critique regarding the recent Illinois tax hike, warning that increased levies could inadvertently drive enthusiasts away from regulated platforms and toward the dangerous shadows of the black market. The SBA has issued a sharp critique regarding the recent Illinois tax hike, warning that increased levies could inadvertently drive enthusiasts away from regulated platforms and toward the dangerous shadows of the black market. As legal options become more expensive, the industry fears that the growing popularity of sports betting will be stifled, pushing consumers to seek out unregulated alternatives to avoid the rising costs associated with state-sanctioned wagering.

SBA Warns Illinois Tax Hike Could Drive Sports Betting Toward the Black Market

• Sports Betting Alliance (SBA) criticises Illinois over recent tax hike on sports betting.
• Claims it will push smaller bettors towards unregulated bookmakers.

The Sports Betting Alliance (SBA), representing operators of US sportsbooks, has condemned Illinois over its recent sports betting tax increase. They argue that the new per-bet levy on gaming firms will be a catalyst for smaller bettors to shift towards unregulated markets.

In a statement from its Illinois chapter, the SBA rebuked the state for imposing a charge of 25 cents per bet on the first 20 million bets booked, which then increases to 50 cents for every bet thereafter—actions the group believes will negatively impact smaller bettors.

Data reveals that the state’s new per-wager tax will chiefly affect recreational bettors who place small amounts. With more than 50% of bets in Illinois under $5, this tax is likely to divert many residents to illegal, predatory sports betting markets.

This is of increasing concern to top consumer advocates including the Illinois Attorney General and the Better Business Bureau.

On a broader scale, members of the SBA include top entities like Bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Fanatics, and FanDuel.

SBA Raises Alarm Before Football Season

As the football season kicks off, the impact of Illinois’ tax environment intensifies, especially given that football ranks as the most wagered-on sport across the US.

In response to the recent tax rise, sportsbook operators in Illinois are reevaluating their practices, with some implementing per-bet fees or minimum bet requirements. These changes may further contribute to a migration of bettors to unregulated markets.

A growing number of companies are beginning to pass on the burden of the Illinois per-wager sports betting tax to customers. This transition will likely escalate the risks associated with the flourishing illegal online gaming market.

Last week, Caesars Sportsbook, alongside DraftKings, Fanatics, and FanDuel, began assessing per-bet fees in Illinois. Notably, BetMGM, Circa Sports, ESPN Bet, Hard Rock Bet, and Rush Street Interactive have introduced minimum bet requirements, albeit on smaller amounts, in response to the new tax.

Enduring Criticism

In the sports betting circles, organisations that have started implementing transaction fees, including the SBA, have encountered notable criticism. Observers argue that the SBA should have anticipated this latest tax increase as Illinois adopted a progressive tax scheme last year.

According to their statement, “Alongside Illinois’ graduated tax for 2024, the current per-wager tax places the burden of the highest taxes paid by legal sports betting customers in the country.” They caution that unregulated offshore operators are presenting more appealing betting options without the consumer protections mandated for legal venues, such as age verification and regulatory oversight.

Conclusion

The escalating costs tied to legal sports betting in Illinois, coupled with a lack of regulation for illegal markets, can only spell trouble for the state’s recreational bettors. As the sports betting landscape continues to evolve, it’s essential for authorities to consider the effects of taxation on consumer behaviour.

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New Leadership at iGaming Ontario: Appointing a New President and CEO to Drive iGaming Market Growth

The board at iGaming Ontario (iGO) recently announced the appointment of Joseph Hillier as the new President and CEO. Key Highlights of the evolving iGaming market:

• Joseph Hillier brings a blend of public and private sector experience.
• Hillier was the former chief strategy officer of AGCO.
• Industry experts predict further growth in Ontario’s iGaming market.

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The board at iGaming Ontario (iGO) recently announced the appointment of Joseph Hillier as the new President and CEO. This decision comes at a pivotal moment in the evolution of the online gaming landscape in Ontario, which is experiencing significant growth.

Effective September 8, 2025, Hillier’s experience includes serving as the Chief Strategy Officer and Corporate Secretary at the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO), the organization responsible for regulating iGaming in the province.

iGaming Ontario operates under the supervision of the Minister of Tourism, Culture and Gaming and collaborates closely with AGCO to manage the regulated iGaming market.

Public and Private Sector Experience

During his tenure at AGCO, Hillier played a crucial role in implementing strategic and regulatory initiatives across the sectors of alcohol, cannabis, gaming, and horse racing within Ontario. His expertise in regulatory frameworks positions him well to lead iGO through its next phases of growth.

The Board of Directors is optimistic about Hillier’s leadership, expecting him to enhance the successes of Ontario’s iGaming market and address pressing priorities. These include developing an effective anti-money laundering system for operators and establishing a centralized self-exclusion platform for players.

Self-Exclusion Program

Hillier’s appointment comes as he replaces Martha Otton, who retired in August 2024. Following her retirement, a leadership transition was initiated that culminated in Hillier’s appointment.

As noted by industry insiders, while iGaming Ontario has acquired valuable lessons over its 3.5 years of operation, there remains a pressing need for automation, particularly in AML reporting, which currently is a manual process. The organization is in the process of awarding contracts to facilitate a centralized self-exclusion system, actions that some believe should have been prioritized much earlier.

50 Licensed Operators Currently in Ontario

As of now, the Ontario iGaming market comprises around 50 licensed operators, each vying for a share of the expanding market.

While iGO is not a gaming company in the traditional sense, it operates as a contract management entity in partnership with both public and private stakeholders.

Need for AML Automation

Experts in the industry advocate for iGO to embrace policies that support its 50 operators, enabling them to thrive and remain competitive against illegal markets. Efforts to introduce automation and streamline costs are seen as pivotal for this endeavor.

Furthermore, there is an expectation of new entrants joining Ontario’s regulated iGaming market as other provinces, such as Alberta, establish their regulatory frameworks, making Ontario an attractive option for business expansion.

iGO Reports Market Growth in July

Recent financial reports from iGaming Ontario indicate a 4% month-over-month increase in total wagers, with July seeing CA$7.56 billion wagered across the regulated iGaming market. This growth illustrates the ongoing demand for online gaming in Ontario and highlights the importance of efficient operational practices for future profitability.

Overall, Joseph Hillier’s appointment signals a proactive approach as iGaming Ontario prepares to meet the challenges and opportunities of an evolving market, aiming to provide comprehensive and well-regulated iGaming experiences for its operators and customers.

In summary, the future for iGaming Ontario looks optimistic with Joseph Hillier at the helm. His public and private sector experience will likely play an essential role in navigating the complexities of the online gaming landscape, promoting growth, and ensuring compliance within the regulations. As the market continues its expansion, stakeholders eagerly anticipate the advancements and initiatives that will arise under his leadership.

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Accel Entertainment Stock Poised to Grow Through Video Gaming Terminals

Accel Entertainment (NYSE: ACEL) is gradually becoming a noteworthy name in the gaming industry. Discover the Growth Journey of Accel Entertainment and how they have revolutionized the landscape of the gaming industry through the strategic deployment of advanced video gaming terminals.

• Underfollowed gaming stock with significant potential.
• Operates in the distributed gaming niche.

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Accel Entertainment (NYSE: ACEL) is gradually becoming a noteworthy name in the gaming industry. With a market capitalisation of approximately AUD 967.69 million, the company seems to be enjoying a stealthy rise while operating in a sector that many overlook. Recent evaluations by financial analysts point to promising growth opportunities.

Texas Capital analyst David Bain recently initiated coverage on Accel, giving it a “buy” rating and setting a price target of AUD 17 per share. This suggests a potential upside of 47.1% based on recent closing prices.

“ACEL is an underappreciated gaming operator, connecting great free cash flow generation with growth and maintaining an undervalued position,” remarks Bain. “Its hyper-local operations provide more resilience in economic downturns compared to many regional casinos, and its growth in sales and EBITDA outstrips group averages.”

This assessment underscores that Accel is largely overlooked by investors—with Bain being the fourth analyst to provide coverage. Historical trends indicate that smaller, overlooked stocks have the potential for substantial financial returns.

The Growth Dynamics of Accel Entertainment

The business model of Accel is straightforward and effective. The company focuses on distributing Video Gaming Terminals (VGTs) in everyday venues like:

• Restaurants
• Bars and Taverns
• Convenience Stores
• Liquor Stores
• Truck Stops
• Grocery Stores

While not glamorous, this model has proven robust and adaptable. Accel’s reach has expanded drastically—growing from its operations in just one state in 2019 to six states today, with a total of 27,388 VGTs across 4,427 locations noted at the second quarter’s end. Notably, this surpasses the number operated by Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ: RRR) and nears Boyd Gaming’s count.

Without the sleek façade typical of iGaming or online sports betting, Accel provides investors with predictable and transparent revenue streams. Bain notes that:

“Distributed gaming is steadily growing in mature markets, while newer, less defined markets present significant growth opportunities. Accel appears favourably positioned to expand into new demographics, offering opportunities that traditional regional casinos might encounter challenges in pursuing.”

Investment Value in Accel Entertainment

Accel distinguishes itself not just through growth but also through solid financials. Bain indicates that the company’s projected enterprise value-to-EBITDA for 2025 and 2026 sits at discounts of 51% and 54%, respectively, when compared to the broader gaming supplier sector. This adds to its appeal for potential investors.

In addition, its anticipated free cash flow yield for 2025 and 2026 is an average of 28% below that of its regional casino competitors, yet its expected sales growth considerably surpasses the predicted revenue increases for those venues.

Bain concludes with confidence, stating, “Despite a clear growth trajectory, ACEL’s stock valuation remains well below that of its peers, reflecting a unique opportunity for investors.”

Key Highlights

• Accel Entertainment is gaining analyst attention.
• Its business model shows steady growth.
• Investment valuation is below peers, suggesting room for growth.

In summary, Accel Entertainment is positioned for a promising trajectory in the gaming market. With its robust operational model and significant growth potential, it might just be time to pay attention to this under-the-radar stock.

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